How much will college cost? Estimating a future college bill

A college savings goal needs a cost to plan against. Nobody knows what a college will charge in ten or fifteen years, but you can make a working estimate from three things: what college costs today, how fast that cost may grow, and how many years the student may attend.

This guide explains each input, shows a worked example with Virginia figures, and lists what a simple estimate leaves out. It describes how Gradually's college cost estimate works. It is not financial advice or a prediction of any college's future prices.

Start with more than tuition

Tuition is only part of the bill. A student who lives on campus also pays mandatory fees, housing, and food. For many families, those costs are close to the size of tuition itself.

A useful starting figure includes tuition, mandatory fees, room, and board. Books, travel, and personal costs add more on top. Keep track of which costs your figure includes, so that you compare like with like.

What college costs today

Published averages give a reasonable starting point before you have a specific school in mind:

• In-state public, Virginia: $30,759 a year in 2026-27. This is the average of tuition, all mandatory fees, and room and board at Virginia's public four-year institutions, from the SCHEV 2026-27 Tuition and Fees report.
• Out-of-state public: $45,780 a year in 2025-26, the national average of tuition and fees ($31,880) plus housing and food ($13,900).
• Private nonprofit: $60,920 a year in 2025-26, the national average of tuition and fees ($45,000) plus housing and food ($15,920).

The out-of-state and private figures come from the College Board's Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2025. Its full student budgets also add books, supplies, transportation, and other costs, so they are higher than the figures above.

Individual schools vary a lot around these averages. When you have schools in mind, look up their current prices on the College Scorecard or on each school's own cost of attendance page.

Published price and net price

The figures above are published prices, sometimes called sticker prices. Many students pay less after grants and scholarships. The College Board reports that most full-time undergraduates receive grant aid.

A net price calculator on a college's website estimates what a family may pay after grant aid, from the family's own income and circumstances. A savings goal based on published prices is more conservative. It may be higher than what you eventually pay.

How cost growth adds up over time

College prices have usually risen faster than general inflation. Recent increases have been smaller. In 2025-26, published tuition and fees rose 2.9% at public four-year colleges for in-state students and 4.0% at private nonprofit colleges, according to the College Board. In Virginia, the average total of tuition, fees, room, and board rose 3.9% for 2026-27.

Many long-range plans use 5% a year. Small differences in the rate matter because growth compounds. Take the Virginia in-state figure of $30,759 and a student who starts college in ten years:

• At 5% a year, one year of college would cost about $50,103. Four years at that price come to about $200,413.
• At 3% a year, one year would cost about $41,338. Four years come to about $165,350.

That is a difference of about $35,000 from two percentage points. Try more than one rate, and revisit the rate when new figures come out.

How Gradually's estimate works

Gradually's college cost estimate is on the Planning tab, for each beneficiary. It uses four inputs:

1. Expected college start year, set on the Beneficiaries tab. Gradually has no default for this. Without it there is no estimate.
2. Annual cost today. Choose "Help me estimate" and pick in-state public, out-of-state public, or private to use the published figures above. Or choose "Enter my own" and type a figure, for example a specific school's cost of attendance.
3. Years of attendance. The default is 4.
4. College tuition inflation, under Market assumptions. The default is 5% a year. It applies to every beneficiary on the account.

Gradually grows the annual cost by the inflation rate for each year until the start year, then multiplies it by the years of attendance. The years until enrollment are the start year minus the current calendar year.

The Planning chart compares this estimate with the projected balance at enrollment, and shows what share of the estimated cost the projection may cover.

If you use "Help me estimate", your estimate follows Gradually's published figures. When a new report comes out and Gradually updates a figure, your estimate changes with it. A figure that you type stays as you typed it. The info icon next to "Annual cost today" names each source and the date the figures were last updated.

What the estimate leaves out

The estimate is a simple planning figure. Keep these limits in mind:

• Price increases during college. The estimate holds the price flat across the years of attendance. If prices keep rising 5% a year while the student is enrolled, four years would cost about 8% more.
• Financial aid. It uses published prices, before any grants, scholarships, or tax credits.
• Books, travel, and personal costs. The published figures do not include them.
• Specific schools. The defaults are averages. A given school can cost much more or much less.
• Other ways to attend. Living at home, starting at a community college, or graduating early or late change the cost. Adjust the annual cost and the years of attendance to match.
• Uncertainty. Nobody knows the future rate of cost growth. The estimate is one scenario, not a forecast.

Revisit the estimate each year

Treat the estimate as a checkpoint, not a fixed target. Once a year, and whenever plans change, check the start year, the type of school, the growth rate, and whether a specific school's price should replace the average. As college gets closer, replace averages with real figures from the schools the student is considering.